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The International Journal of the Royal Society of Thailand
Volume XII, 2020

warming: milder than the world average
rainfall unclear
agriculture mixed, some good, some bad

sea-level several cities at risk
To this point, climate change remained low on the region’s priorities.

The pledges under the Paris Agreement had a perfunctory feel. IPCC5 tended to
confirm that climate change is mainly an issue for the temperate regions and
the advanced economies. A decade on from the ADB’s reports and the first
country masterplans, very little had been done in the region to reduce emissions
or to prepare for the impacts.

Beyond Paris

Over the last few years, this complacency has been challenged. There has
been more abnormal and extreme weather in the region. Both 2015 and 2019
saw an exceptionally strong El Nino. The number of cyclones hitting the
Vietnamese coast in 2017 and 2018 exceeded precedent. Incidence of heatwaves,
floods, and droughts have all increased.

At the same time, more local research has begun to fill in some of the
gaps in the international literature. Researchers in Thailand now predict that
the monsoon will become stronger and more erratic, delivering fewer rain
events but much greater intensity, meaning more flooding and more drought.
They also show that the ENSO (El Nino/La Nina) effect has become more erratic
over recent years, and is likely to become even more erratic in the future (Limsakul
et al., 2019; TARC, 2016).

Germanwatch (an NGO) constructed a Global Climate Risk Index based
on the costs (physical, human, and financial) incurred by extreme weather
events since 1998. Among 124 countries in the index, several in Southeast Asia
ranked high (Germanwatch, 2019):

Country rank
Myanmar 3
Philippines 5
Vietnam 9
Thailand 13
Cambodia 19

142 Climate Change and Inequality in Southeast Asia:
Review, Prospects, Priorities

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