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The International Journal of the Royal Society of Thailand
Volume XII, 2020

2010s: IPCC5, Paris Agreement, and IPCC6

The Fifth Report from the IPCC, which appeared in 2014, declared:
“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of
the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia” (UN-IPCC,
2014a: 188). It predicted warming in the range of 3.7 to 4.8°C by 2100 unless

policies changed.
This report also offered predictions at a regional level, rather than just
global. Asia is one of the nine regions covered. The report is very telling. Asia is
the largest of the Report’s regions in terms of area (except for ‘Oceans’) and
population, yet the Asia chapter is the shortest (44 pages as against 68 for Africa
and Australasia). This is a function of the lack of data. The report has a table
showing data quality by sub-regions and topics. For Southeast Asia, excluding

the topic of human settlements, 42 of the 52 topics are classed as “Limited
information / no data; critical knowledge gaps, difficult to draw conclusions”
(UN-IPCC, 2014b: 1354). Even on basic items such as sub-regional projections
of rainfall and temperature, the IPCC rated its own estimates as no firmer than
“likely,” and skipped many estimates and projections on grounds of “insufficient
evidence” (see e.g. UN-IPCC, 2014b: 1170).

According to this report (UN-IPCC, 2014b: 1334–5), from 1901 to 2012
the recorded increase in temperature in Southeast Asia has been within 1˚C. In its
most optimistic projection (world within 1.5˚C), the increase will remain mild
over the 21 century, but under its most pessimistic projection, the increase
st
ranges from 6˚C in the north to 3˚C in the archipelago. From 1951 to 2005, rainfall
has trended upwards over the coastal areas and archipelago. In the optimistic
scenario, there is only mild change over the 21 century. In the pessimistic
st
scenario, there will be some increase in rainfall over the mainland, but the
results over the archipelago are very inconsistent.

It is evident that at the time of the Fifth Report in 2014, IPCC was
struggling to understand key factors in the climate of Southeast Asia. It reported

that “Regional circulations, such as the monsoon, are expected to change,”
but offered no projections for the future. On ENSO (El Nino/La Nina), it
concluded “there is little evidence to indicate changes forced by GHG warming
that are outside the natural modulation,” and it found no trend in the incidence
of cyclones (UN-IPCC, 2014b: 1162, 1333).

140 Climate Change and Inequality in Southeast Asia:
Review, Prospects, Priorities

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