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The International Journal of the Royal Society of Thailand
Volume XII, 2020

Introduction

This article lays out some very general ideas about climate change,
Southeast Asia, inequality, and the future. I approach the topic with the mindset
of a social scientist. The literature on climate change concentrates on the physical

changes in the planet; and on the ways that humans can mitigate this trend,
and adapt to its results. There is much less study of how the physical changes
will impact on societies and react with politics. In fact, these reactions are
already taking place, and thus are available for study and reflection.
As climate change is very much a global issue, I will spend some time on
the global aspect, but the focus is on Southeast Asia. I will start by examining

where we are today through a brief view of the history. I will then examine the
interaction of climate change, inequality, and politics, and make some propositions
about political and social aspects of climate change in the region. I will end
by discussing the reasons for inaction on climate change, and the priorities
for action.

A brief history

From the beginning to Kyoto
Awareness of climate change and global warming dates back to around
1970. In 1988, the UN created the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change) to study and synthesize the science. Its first report, and the Rio Conference
in 1992 created the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, basically
numerical commitments by the advanced countries to reduce emissions. These
were formalized in the Kyoto Protocols in 1997. As “developing countries”,
Southeast Asian states were not required to make commitments, but some
profited from carbon-trading arrangements. The scientists projected that the
impacts of climate change would be more severe the nearer to the poles. The issue
of climate change was very low on the priorities of the region.

2000s: IPCC4, Stern and ADB

There were two major changes in the 2000s. First, in its 4th Report in
2007, the UN-IPCC declared with 90% certainty that global warming was a
result of human activity and that “Unmitigated climate change would, in the long
term, be likely to exceed the capacity of natural, managed and human systems

138 Climate Change and Inequality in Southeast Asia:
Review, Prospects, Priorities

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