Page 155 - _21-0619 OK

The International Journal of the Royal Society of Thailand
Volume XII, 2020

India is already around 35%, and is set to expand rapidly in the next
few years. The crucial difference lies in the power market. India has a relatively
free market in power production, so the falling costs of solar and other renewables

are rapidly being reflected in the pattern of generation (Ross, 2020). Thailand’s
power market is distorted by government-owned monopolies and powerful
corporate lobbies. Other Southeast Asian countries are similar (Vietnam,
Indonesia).

The obvious solution is to break down these monopolies, but that is
difficult, because they create revenue for their governments and serve as a
rice-bowl for technocrats, politicians, and corporate managers.

5. A major social consequence will be increased migration

Climate change will increase the incidence of local droughts, floods,
and storm damage; will flood coastal areas and some cities; and perhaps will
also decrease crop yields. The established pattern of coping with such stress is to
move to the cities, or to migrate overseas. Sometimes only individual, productive
family members make the move. Sometimes the whole unit is uprooted. There is
no reasons to expect this pattern to change. There will be no sudden “crisis” from
climate change, but a gradual intensification of migration streams from areas
of local stress—environmental refugees.

There is already a trend of migrating to big cities, partly because of the
economic opportunities but also because of the access to public goods like
quality education and health care, which are very unevenly distributed. This
trend is likely to increase, and to put extra strain on infrastructure. The IPCC
Report in 2019 stated:

Both global warming and urbanisation can enhance warming in cities
and their surroundings (heat island effect), especially during heat
related events, including heat waves (high confidence). Night-time
temperatures are more affected by this effect than daytime temperatures
(high confidence). Increased urbanisation can also intensify extreme rainfall
events over the city or downwind of urban areas (medium confidence).
(UN-IPCC, 2019: 12)

Those displaced by local crises will tend to be the poorer and more
vulnerable, and they will mostly enter the low-paid informal sector of the cities.

147
Chris Baker

5/1/2565 BE 09:04
_21-0619(137-154)8.indd 147
_21-0619(137-154)8.indd 147 5/1/2565 BE 09:04