สำนักราชบัณฑิตยสภา

The Journal of the Royal Institute of Thailand Volume II - 2010 Sobha Spielmann 13 As it has turned out, Thai official responses to the conflict, other than the use of force, appear hesitant and not readily forthcoming, as if the challenge was entirely unexpected and the authorities taken by surprise. In reality the authorities over the years could not even identify and localize its leadership. However historic precedence as well as a host of distinctions including a wide discrepancy between local and mainstream norms and values differing from that of their mainstream neighbours could imply that these contrasting ways of life remain on a collision course. The developments in the last years have shown that Thailand basically had no operative conflict prevention or avoidance strategy and has a history of missing minority views and not giving in to dissent from outside the establishment. Presently, nearly a decade into the conflict, Thailand still has no coherent strategy and has not developed a dependable facility for recognizing and issuing an early warning in response to these or other groups or points of major friction or to sound alarm bells about impending grave social problems or of an imminent for recognising conflict brewing. Prospects Positive Approach The demonstrated disquieting lack of preparedness to take on such a major issue as the Southern conflict, which at the time of its outbreak had simmered for a few decades and that could not have escaped the notice of the authorities, and which is now still raging in its sixth year. In addition, the public debate about the responses hitherto chosen for dealing with such a major challenge have been proven as “too little, too late” are obviously incapable of containing the conflict. Lacking the ability or of the means for detecting or interpreting the codes or signals for impending confrontation or of upcoming strife that could warn authorities and the public, or else, reveal the fuses that could go off and thus forestall a major ‘explosion’, we need therefore to examine other conflicts and analyse their typical structure and flow. Often violence is visible at the surface but is found to be just the tip of an iceberg. Therefore, recognizing and addressing friction early could be a major bonus and part of an effective proactive response. A pre-condition for or reconstitution of internal ‘peace’ is not only the absence of open conflict, a negative/passive goal, but even more so, a confluence of positive interests and feelings towards others, a sense of mutual responsibility and a readiness to collaborate. Reaching a positive synergy requires an input and effort from all sides and need to be based on enhancing common interests and faith in the