สำนักราชบัณฑิตยสภา

The Journal of the Royal Institute of Thailand Volume II - 2010 Sobha Spielmann 11 specific events, triggers that lead to reactions on the part of the weaker side and, eventually, to open conflict. Specific root causes and triggers of violence and conflict may be many, such as rifts between or unfairness felt by members of ethnic, religious, political, economic or social groups or a combination of some or all of these factors. Pressure on ethnic or religious minorities, disparity and discontent between rural and urban dwellers, distrust between the capital and the provinces have been found amongst the most reliable predictors of the outbreak of confrontation or unrest. Into this plays also a wide discrepancy of life styles, whereas a majority still upholds the traditional values, occupations and the ‘past’ way of life, a growing minority have moved on to more ‘modern’ choices and outlook. Friction prevails. An important yardstick for gauging the likelihood of an eruption of violence provides the concept of direct and structural violence, the latter defined as the systematic way in which a state can deter, prevent or exclude individuals from achieving their full potential. Institutionalized racism or gender inequality come to mind as well as the relegation of groups of people to second-class citizenship. Social relations in such societies tend to be uneven (and often static), with some on the top and others at the bottom of the hierarchy. With such conditions, violence does not need to be direct, as it is built into the structure of society and set against those not part of the establishment. Warning Signals Indicators and warning signals of potential or impending conflict are many and varied such as in states with a centralised system of administration; a growing dissonance between state ideology (and actors) and self-concept, as well as the aspirations of people in the provinces and/or those on the periphery. When ethnic origin, culture and/or religion of a minority group differs from that of the majority and they feel that they are being pushed constantly towards giving up their culture and mother tongue, a further step towards confrontation takes place. A general air of intolerance or discrimination may persuade those outside of the establishment that their concerns are only marginal. When their communities are not provided a similar level of public services (roads, electricity, water, sanitation) or a say in local matters, or there is a sense of receiving less than a ‘fair’ share in educational and medical services and little or no economic incentives and development commensurate with that at the national level coming their way, either, disappointment may turn to frustration.