59-05-032 Proceeding

35 Proceedings of the Princess Maha Chakri Sirindhorn Congress policy framework in the past 30 years and some have significant share of renewables in their energy mix. Denmark, for example, sources 33.7% of domestic electricity consumption from wind (IEA, 2013). More renewables are expected to deploy in emerging economies, led by China, India and Brazil. To ensure grid stability and security, a diverse mix of energy sources is required with base load energy providing for the minimum requirement. Therefore, the future energy mix should consist of a balanced share of suitable energy sources based on national and natural factors, rather than a simplistic focus on one particular source that may be marketed aggressively in the country. With some off-grid capacities installed in small scales or remote areas, themajority of capacity could come from renewable sources, while like electricity generated from conventional fuels remains grid-connected, and transmitted and distributed for industries, businesses and residential use.The potential of each technology in the energy mix can be better understood by looking at the capacity factors (ratio of actual power output over power output at full capacity) (Figure 4). Technologies with higher capacity factors are more suitable to provide base load and lower capacity factors to provide for intermediate and peak load. Therefore some formof renewables, namely hydropower, geothermal and biomass, can replace fossil fuel to become the base load energy in the mix, due to their high reliability, low cost and compatibility with existing infrastructure. The disadvantages of intermittent renewable sources can be further compensated through demand-side management (DSM) technologies, electricity storage and enhanced coordination or forecasting (Matek and Gawell, 2015). The Levelised Cost of Electricity (LCOE)of each technology is a useful measure for the relative competitiveness of renewables in the marketplace. This measure helps governments Figure 4 Monthly capacity factors for selected fuels and technologies (Source: EIA. 15 Jan 2015.)